When I saw this the first time, I blew it off as forecasts are not reliable most of the time. Looked at it again as I was needing a Thursday blog post and thought “mean reversion” …
The Golden Squid is forecasting S&P 500 earnings for tech companies’ vs the index. Looks like mean reversion to me. What that does to the price of shares going forward, I’m not guessing, and I have no crystal ball.
Stanley Druckenmiller is a really smart man, and he says “50% of a stock’s move is the overall market, 30% is the industry, and maybe 20% is from individual stock picking.”
There are many ways to skin a cat.
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