Midway through the 2020s, it’s time for a quick look back at how the world’s top 20 economies have performed since 2015. This graphic ranks countries by their forecasted gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 and visualizes their inflation-adjusted growth since 2015. The 2015 figure was calculated by reversing the effects of real GDP growth for every intervening year. All figures are in 2025 dollars.
Data for this chart is sourced from the International Monetary Fund.
While both Asian giants grew their GDPs around 70% in the last decade, China did so off a much larger $11 trillion base. Back then economists forecasted China overtaking the U.S. as the world’s top economy, however a pandemic slowdown and malaise in the real estate sector has since changed projections.
Meanwhile, India’s impressive growth has pushed it into a top five ranking, a spot the UK held back in 2015.
The IMF projects India will overtake Japan this year and Germany by 2027.
Other developing countries, Indonesia and Türkiye also saw impressive growth. For Türkiye, this is despite persistently high inflation since 2018 and a steadily depreciating lira. If there had to be a laggard of this big 20 group, it would be Brazil. At 8% inflation-adjusted GDP growth, it’s the only country with a single-digit figure. As a commodity exporter, the 2014 commodity price collapse affected the country, sending it into a recession. While recovery began, the pandemic had an impact as well, though trade and investment are back at pre-pandemic levels.
- The input on this week’s article is from Sherman Portfolios.
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